Year In Preview: Billboard’s Bold Insights

Sure, the music business is hitting all time lows, with executives panicking and trying every remaining angle to sell product, but there’s a lot to look forward to in 2008, right? Bill Werde, executive editor at Billboard magazine, appears on today’s episode of the public radio business news program Marketplace to discuss what he sees in his industry crystal ball for 2008. What will save the industry that pays his bills and mine? I dunno, same stuff as every other year, I suppose.

The interview holds precisely zero surprises: people are curious how uninspired Madonna can make her last record for Warner Brothers (I’m reading between the lines to what he was assuredly really thinking on that one), U2’s new record apparently sounds like The Joshua Tree, Mariah Carey’s sticking with the Jermaine Dupri produced tracks that saved her career. But what’s odd is that the entire piece skips over the actually interesting lede to discuss whether Usher can sell nine million discs again:

Doug Krizner: The music business has been in a funk, as sales continue to drop. In 2007, the top-selling album was a Christmas project, second-best was a soundtrack to a teen-themed Disney movie. Well, there’s a wealth of highly anticipated releases in the new year. Let’s get a preview now from Bill Werde of the trade magazine Billboard…. Krizner: How much is at stake for the recording industry this year? Werde: Well, you know, the sales of recorded music continue to decline, and digital growth is not offsetting that. So I think what happens is for major labels, there’s more and more pressure for their blockbuster releases to really connect. Usher’s sales are now over 9 million copies on the last album, and you know, we haven’t had an album like that in the music business since then.

So, anyone want to place bets on whether Usher’s repeatedly delayed album will hit those sort of numbers again? Anyone? What would have been vastly more interesting than the revelation that The Joshua Tree was “a really popular album for U2”, is what an executive editor at Billboard thinks is in store for an industry whose top-selling albums were “a Christmas project” and “a soundtrack to a teen-themed Disney movie.” Is it worth getting excited for albums of new material by existing superstars when its inevitable that a new Disney created pre-teen star or some other novelty record aimed at those purchasing precisely one disc a year jamming the racks at Target will assuredly trump whatever the majors throw out there?

Labels anticipate year’s big hitters [Marketplace]