MTV Video Music Award Nominations Air Tonight: Who Will Rule The 2011 VMAs?

The MTV Video Music Awards have been home to some major events in pop music history. Who can forget Kanye interrupting Taylor or Gaga’s carnivorous ensemble? (And that was just in the past couple years!) We know a lot of eyes will be watching when the show broadcasts on August 28 to deliver Moonmen to our favorite artists. But who will be amongst the nominees? Tonight at 11 EST, MTV will air a special announcing this year’s contenders, with Katy Perry sharing the good news via a live-stream chat from Seattle. Will last year’s winners Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, and Eminem be in the running? We think so. Who else? Our thoughts below.

Last year Lady Gaga took home the majority of the awards, including Best Female and Video of the Year. (Eminem was Best Male Video.) Was that a shocker? Not really.

But this year, there’s no clear front-runner. Sure, we’d be able to predict categories like Sorest Neck (Willow Smith), Deadest Unicorns (Ke$ha), and Purplest Stoop (Gaga) if those existed. But Video of the Year? Best Female Video? Tougher call.

Certainly Lady Gaga is still praised for her visual panache, but neither “Born This Way” nor “Judas” was the mind-blowing everybody-loves-it smash “Bad Romance” was (as a single or a video), and “The Edge Of Glory” disappointed many. “Born This Way” likely has the best chance of being nominated — but with its gross-out alien-birth imagery, it isn’t quite a sure thing.

We’re also a little stumped over Katy Perry (who we’re pretty certain must not have been snubbed if they asked her to read the nominations). So many of her singles have performed well that it’s hard to say which of her videos has the most steam. The funny, tongue-in-cheek parody “Last Friday Night”? The visually spectacular, Kanye-assisted space odyssey “E.T.”? Or the inspirational anthem “Firework” about letting your inner light shine (through your breasts, if necessary)? We’re confident that Katy will be represented in the Best Female category, but for which video? It’s anybody’s guess.

Beyonce’s “Run The World (Girls)” visual sure seems like a shoo-in given the high-cost spectacle involved (and some very fierce dancing) — though it would have even more of a lock if the single had performed stronger. Adele’s “Rolling In The Deep,” on the other hand, is performing like gangbusters. It’s a song just about everybody likes and will provide the show with some soul, class, and variety. Count on that for some nominations, particularly in the Best Female category (Video of the Year wouldn’t surprise us either).

We could very well see Rihanna amongst the nominees. Her “Man Down” video may be too controversial and “California King Bed” was a bit of a snooze, but the playful “S&M” could sneak in (if everyone has forgotten that it ripped off David LaChappelle). Or maybe it’ll be Loud‘s lead single “Only Girl In The World,” a totally safe choice.

Will we see Britney Spears in the roster? “Till The World Ends” could make it thanks to the high-concept doomsday imagery (and the strength of the song), but many have criticized the vid for quick cuts that make it obvious Britney isn’t dancing like she used to. “Hold It Against Me” has even less of a shot. We suppose J. Lo’s popular “On The Floor” has a fighting chance. And MTV tends to love them some Pink, so either the upbeat “Raise Your Glass” or heartfelt “F***in’ Perfect” could sneak in somewhere.

If it were up to us, we’d also see Robyn’s “Call Your Girlfriend” nominated for its one-take simplicity and Ke$ha’s “Blow” for its Muenster-flavored, James van der Douche-featuring, unicorn-slaying hijinks, but given the stiff competition, that likely won’t happen.

Meanwhile, the paint-splattered “Whip My Hair” video from Willow Smith may feature too pint-sized an artist for the Best Female category, but she should definitely slip into Best New Artist. Will Rebecca Black’s viral atrocity “Friday” also earn her a Best New Artist nod? Or (gulp!) a shot at bigger prizes? Please, MTV, say it ain’t so!

And what about the boys? It’s impossible to imagine that Kanye West won’t be well-represented for his well-received My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy. Will the epic mini-movie “Runaway” be recognized? Was “Monster” too misogynistic (and too delayed) to make the cut? What about the colorful “All Of The Lights”? Hey — why not all of ’em?

Eminem and Rihanna’s “Love The Way You Lie” feels a bit stale at this point to be a strong contender (it’s nearly a year old), but it’ll likely at least score some nominations. Last year’s Best New Artist winner Justin Bieber could find himself smiling about a nomination for “U Smile,” while Bruno Mars looks likely to score for “Grenade.” Chris Brown and Pitbull could very well round out the Best Male category.

Or maybe they’ll throw us for a loop and this violent clip of French kids shooting each other will get the most nominations:

What did we miss? What do you think? Tell us in the comments!